Monday, July 27, 2015

Summer Reality Predictions: 'BattleBots' Now a Certain Renewal, 'Home Free', 'Boston EMS', and 'Save My Life: Boston Trauma' are Toss Ups, and 'Boom!' is a Certain Cancelation

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Likely Cancelation
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Boston EMS (ABC)
Bullseye (FOX)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
Home Free (FOX)
The Island (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (NBC)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
None, at this point

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)

For the past week, the mass premieres of Home Free, Boston EMS, and Save My Life: Boston Trauma came by with warped speed. The ratings for all three shows are not too terrible especially since Boston EMS is on Saturday. More than likely I will hold off on making any renewal or cancelation predictions until I see one or two more weeks of their ratings. For this they'll start as Toss Ups to be canceled or renewed. 

BattleBots' finale held steady in the ratings. At this point there is no chance that the show will be canceled, so I have upgraded it to a Certain Renewal.

Boom! is not so lucky. With a decline to a 0.6 A18-49 rating, I'm more inclined to believe that cancelation is inevitable. The show is now a Certain Cancelation. 

CW shows Penn & Teller: Fool Us and Whose Line is it Anyway? have been steady in the ratings with 0.4 and 0.5 A18-49 ratings respectively. That's great for summer standards on the network. But I'm holding on for another week, hence the Likely Renewal predictions.

UPDATE: After Penn & Teller: Fool Us rose to a final 0.6 A18-49 rating (and a preliminary 0.7), and a repeat of Whose Line scored a 0.4, I have upgraded them to "certain to be renewed". Obviously with those ratings, expect them to stick around for anther season.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Welcome to Sweden' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 
American Odyssey (NBC)
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)
Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)
Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) - canceled 7/28

Likely Cancelation 
Mistresses (ABC)
The Whispers (ABC)

Toss Up
Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)
Rookie Blue (ABC)

Likely Renewal
Under the Dome (CBS)
Zoo (CBS)

Certain Renewal
None, at this point

Renewed
Aquarius (NBC)
Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Welcome to Sweden dropped in the ratings to a new series low of a 0.2 A18-49 rating. With absolute confidence, the show will immediately be downgraded to "certain to be canceled". Adding on to the certainty is the fact that Sweden has not renewed the series yet, and it is unlikely to do so.

In the woeful ratings territory that is CBS, Under the Dome and Zoo, pulling in numbers that indicate cancelation are both likely to be renewed by a slim margin. Still at least one scripted show will be canceled, and that will most likely be certain to be canceled Extant, not the other two.

Rookie Blue will be upgraded to a Toss Up this week. Since it is pulling in numbers similar to The Whispers and it is a veteran series, it could survive at lower relative ratings. But the ratings are still fractional. This week it has risen to a 0.8 A18-49 rating, and I'm hoping that it's not a fluke. I could see it go either way.

UPDATE: To no one's surprise, NBC canceled Welcome to Sweden after four low rated episodes. 

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Summer Reality Predictions: Has 'Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?' Been Canceled? 'Knock Knock Live' Will Be

Reality Series

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Likely Cancelation
Boom! (FOX)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
Last Comic Standing (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Certain Renewal
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)

On the train wreck that is FOX, Knock Knock Live premiered DOA, with a 0.5 A18-49 rating. The network thought that airing the So You Think You Can Dance? clip show this week in hopes that it will boost the ratings would work. But it did not, and that's why the show is a Certain Cancelation.

In order to accommodate the new show, FOX decided not to air Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? this week. Some reports are stating that the show was pulled off the schedule. Regardless, it's enough for my prediction to downgrade to "certain to be canceled" for the struggling game show.

On a positive note, BattleBots has been steady in the ratings, which is enough for me to upgrade it to a Likely Renewal this week. Also, the observant will note that Celebrity Family Feud was upgraded to "certain to be renewed". With the ratings that it has been getting, it's clearly not going anywhere. 

To no one's surprise, MasterChef was renewed for a seventh season.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Welcome to Sweden' and 'The Whispers' are Likely to Be Canceled, For Now

Canceled 
American Odyssey (NBC)
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)
Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)
Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Likely Cancelation 
Mistresses (ABC)
Rookie Blue (ABC)
The Whispers (ABC)
Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Toss Up
Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)
Under the Dome (CBS)
Zoo (CBS)

Likely Renewal
None, at this point

Certain Renewal
None, at this point

Renewed
Aquarius (NBC)
Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week I did not expect to be downgrading some television shows. I expected to upgrade at least one show. However I'm holding on for one more week.

Welcome to Sweden premiered abominably low with a 0.3 A18-49 rating. I have to admit that I will give it the benefit of the doubt, since it is an international coproduction. For this point, rather than starting it in the certain cancelation territory, Welcome to Sweden will start at "likely to be canceled".

What has been going on with The Whispers? We've been hearing that cast options have been expired for the show. The show is not doing badly by summer standards, but with reports about unhappy cast members, we'll put it as "likely canceled" for now.

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Extant' is Certain to Be Canceled, while 'Wayward Pines' is Effectively Canceled

Canceled 
American Odyssey (NBC)
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)
Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)


Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)
Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Likely Cancelation 
Mistresses (ABC)
Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up
Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)
Under the Dome (CBS)
The Whispers (ABC)
Zoo (CBS)

Likely Renewal
None, at this point

Certain Renewal
None, at this point

Renewed
Aquarius (NBC)
Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, FOX has canceled Wayward Pines after one season. Next week's episode showed that it was a series finale instead of a season finale. Therefore, we confirm that the show is, and will forever be, a miniseries, thus making it de-facto canceled.

Extant fell to a series low 0.6 A18-19 rating this week, so woeful that CBS is switching its timeslot to 9:00, instead of 10:00. Safe to say that Extant is 'certain to be canceled' by the end of the summer season.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Summer Reality Predictions - 'Extreme Weight Loss' is Certain to Be Canceled

Reality Series

Certain Cancelation
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)

Likely Cancelation
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
BattleBots (ABC)
Bullseye (FOX)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Certain Renewal
The Bachelorette (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
MasterChef (FOX)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

I have got to admit, I did some spring cleaning on my page.

Last week, Extreme Weight Loss has declined to a series low 0.6 A18-49 rating. The continuing decline for Extreme Weight Loss, especially for the Love Can't Weight episodes, show that the show's chances of renewal are slim at best. Therefore, the show will be downgraded to a Certain Cancelation, joining the CW's woefully rated Cedric's Barber Battle.

The declines in both Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? and Boom! ratings tells me that clearly, game shows are becoming a thing of the past. The shows have been downgraded to likely canceled.

Hollywood Game Night premiered to steady ratings, but it's too early to make a prediction for renewal. I'll predict it at a Toss Up for now.

Celebrity Family Feud has been steadily rising in the ratings. This week, it's been predicted as likely to be renewed, especially since it is the highest rated show on ABC for this week. BattleBots remains a Toss Up, however especially since it has pulled consistent ratings, but not great enough for renewal.

Bachelor in Paradise returns August 2 on ABC.

Summer Scripted Series Predictions: 'Dates' is Certain to Be Canceled

Canceled 
American Odyssey (NBC)
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)
Hannibal (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Likely Cancelation 
Extant (CBS)
Mistresses (ABC)
Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up
Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)
Under the Dome (CBS)
The Whispers (ABC)
Zoo (CBS)

Likely Renewal
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Renewal
None, at this point

Renewed
Aquarius (NBC)
Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, I've done some spring cleaning and decided to combine network shows and make one post for the scripted shows and one post for the reality series. 

This week, I've upgraded Astronaut Wives Club to a Toss Up, and Mistresses and Rookie Blue to likely to be canceled. The reason why is that the unscripted series ratings averages were skewing the predictions. Despite the fact that the ratings aren't that great, the Certain Cancelation predictions were too harsh. 

Dates premiered straight into the cancelation radar, with a 0.2 A18-49 rating for the premiere episode and a 0.1 A18-49 rating for episode two. An import from the UK, the show so far has aired its only season. Also, it was paired with Beauty & the Beast, which is questionable considering that the lead in has very woeful ratings to begin with. I'm expecting that sooner or later, the show will be pulled any day now. 

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

CBS Summer Predictions: 'Extant' is Likely to Be Canceled

Extant returned to a new series low 0.7 A18-49 rating. Immediately, this marks it as likely to be canceled. 

Zoo is still too close to call after its somewhat low series premiere. We'll keep it at a toss up for now.


CBS Shows
Big Brother - Certain Renewal
Under the Dome - Toss Up
Zoo - Toss Up
Extant - Likely Cancelation
The Briefcase - Likely Cancelation

FOX Summer Predictions: 'Boom!' is a Toss Up to be Canceled or Renewed

Boom!'s ratings do sound woeful, but it's not enough to render a cancelation. It's too soon to make a cancelation prediction, so we'll keep it at a Toss Up for now. 

Why haven't Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? and So You Think You Can Dance? been predicted on the chopping block? Again, they are reality shows and they can survive at lower ratings. 

When all shows except for MasterChef and Wayward Pines get fractional ratings that typically indicate cancelation danger zone, it's the fault of the network and not the actual show itself. In fact, all shows that have fractional ratings except the obviously certain to be canceled Golan the Insatiable are now predicted as toss ups to be canceled or renewed.

FOX Shows
MasterChef - Certain Renewal
Wayward Pines - Likely Renewal
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? - Toss Up
Boom! - Toss Up
Bullseye - Toss Up
So You Think You Can Dance? - Toss Up
Golan the Insatiable - Certain Cancelation

CW Summer Predictions: 'Whose Line is it Anyway?' and 'Penn & Teller: Fool Us' are Likely to be Renewed, while 'Cedric's Barber Battle' is Certain to be Canceled

Whose Line is it Anyway? has been steady in recent ratings, while Penn & Teller: Fool Us returned to basically the same ratings it got for the first season finale. A 0.5 A18-49 in this case, is really good by summer standards. For this reason, they are both likely to be renewed. 

However, the same can't be said for Cedric's Barber Battle. Declining ratings to the point where they are now Beauty & the Beast and The Messengers numbers actually means that the show is certain to be canceled. 

Now speaking of Beauty & the Beast, if international ratings were not a factor for renewal, for those already woeful ratings, and for the Tribune renegotiation deal, it would've been canceled a long time ago. Even canceled Hart of Dixie got better ratings than recently renewed Beauty & the Beast especially on a Friday. It will take the start of season four before I make any more cancelation or renewal predictions for that show.

CW Shows
Beauty & the Beast - Renewed
Whose Line is it Anyway? - Likely Renewal
Penn & Teller: Fool Us - Likely Renewal
Cedric's Barber Battle - Certain Cancelation 
The Messengers - Canceled 

ABC Summer Predictions: 'Mistresses' is Certain to Be Canceled

This past week, the ratings for Mistresses dropped to a new series low 0.6 A18-49. The show will be downgraded to certain to be canceled. 

The show now joins already certain to be canceled Rookie Blue, which is an international acquisition from Canada that is currently airing its sixth season. My guess is that it will be another cancelation like Motive, which was renewed in Canada but canceled by ABC. 

Celebrity Family Feud and BattleBots also dropped in the ratings. However I kept them at toss up ranges. I'll give them another week for them to prove themselves.

ABC Shows
The Bachelorette - Certain Renewal
What Would You Do? - Likely Renewal
BattleBots - Toss Up
Celebrity Family Feud - Toss Up
Celebrity Wife Swap - Toss Up
The Whispers - Toss Up
Astronaut Wives Club - Likely Cancelation 
Extreme Weight Loss - Likely Cancelation
Mistresses - Certain Cancelation
Rookie Blue - Certain Cancelation

NBC Summer Predictions: With 'Aquarius' and 'I Can Do That' Renewed and 'Hannibal', 'A.D', and 'American Odyssey' Canceled, Now What? Meanwhile, 'Food Fighters' Starts as Likely to Be Canceled

This past week, NBC has canceled American Odyssey and A.D.: The Bible Continues. No surprise there. Both series have been certain to be canceled for weeks. 

NBC has also renewed I Can Do That, which has been getting solid ratings. The most mind boggling renewal would have to be Aquarius, as this past week is has earned a new series low 0.4 A18-49 rating. 

Meanwhile, Food Fighters' disappointing season premiere rating of a 0.7 A18-49, immediately marks the show as likely to be canceled.


NBC Shows
Aquarius - Renewed
I Can Do That - Renewed
America's Got Talent - Certain Renewal
American Ninja Warrior - Certain Renewal
The Island - Toss Up
Food Fighters - Likely Cancelation 
A.D.: The Bible Continues - Canceled
American Odyssey - Canceled 
Hannibal - Canceled