NBC: 'The Player' is Certain to be Canceled

This week, NBC had a field day during premiere week. Here are the predictions:

Format for predictions: Show (Average 18-49 rating)

Certain Cancelation
The Player (1.2)

Likely Cancelation
None yet

Toss Up
The Mysteries of Laura (1.2)

Likely Renewal
Heroes Reborn (2.0)
Law & Order: SVU (1.8)

Certain Renewal
Blindspot (3.1)

Well that 1.2 rating for The Player means that it will be unlikely be renewed. If I were in headline conversion, I would start it as "likely to be canceled". But I'm not, since the show arrived DOA. It's certain to be canceled.

The Mysteries of Laura returned to the ratings that it was averaging at last spring. It's a Toss Up for now.

Heroes Reborn is likely to be renewed for now, but what will happen to the ratings? A change in ratings and predictions are likely. Same goes with Blindspot.

FOX: 'Minority Report' is Certain to be Canceled

Monday night began the start of the Fall 2015 television season. This week, new FOX shows premiered.

Certain Cancelation 
Minority Report (1.1)

Likely Cancelation
None yet

Toss Up
Scream Queens (1.7)
Gotham (1.6)

Likely Renewal
Rosewood (2.4)

Certain Renewal
Empire (6.7)

But first for the headline, Minority Report arrived DOA with a 1.1 A18-49 rating. It got major promotion, as far as I know. This low rating is scary low, and that equals either a certain reaping or immediate #bearchow, depending on whether you read the Cancel Bear or the TV Grim Reaper. This means that it will immediately start as "certain to be canceled".

Scream Queens, despite the major promotion, did not hit the rating that warranted the hype. A 1.7 A18-49 rating for a Ryan Murphy show means that it may be overhyped. We'll keep it at a Toss Up, for now.

Gotham dropped considerably from last season's premiere. Until the rest of the ratings are known, we'll keep it at a Toss Up.

Rosewood definitely surprised everyone. It has negative reviews and was expected to flop. But it didn't start DOA. Thanks to Empire. Rosewood starts as "likely to be renewed".

ABC: 'Castle' is Likely to be Canceled

This week is premiere week. Already, we have the premiere of Castle to talk about. Also, we will talk about the three remaining summer shows that have uncertain fates.

Format for predictions: Show (Average A18-19 rating)

Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club

Certain Cancelation
The Whispers (0.8)

Likely Cancelation
Castle (1.2)
Rookie Blue (0.7)

Toss Up
None

Likely Renewal
Mistresses (0.8)
The Goldbergs (not yet premiered)

Certain Renewal
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (not yet premiered)

Yet to Premiere
Fresh off the Boat
Black-ish
The Middle
Modern Family
Grey's Anatomy
How to Get Away with Murder
Scandal
Last Man Standing
Blood & Oil
Quantico
Once Upon a Time
Dr. Ken
Wicked City
Galavant (midseason)
American Crime (midseason)
Agent Carter (midseason)
Secrets & Lies (midseason)

The Family (midseason)

The Catch (midseason)

The Real O'Neals (midseason)

Uncle Buck (midseason)

Of Kings & Prophets (midseason)

Castle premiered to a 1.2 A18-49 rating last night. This premiere is way down from last fall's premiere. Immediately, this marks as likely to be canceled.

The Goldbergs is likely to be renewed, due to syndication prospects. Since the automatic syndication renewal guarantee no longer applies to outside studios, renewal is no longer certain. The Goldbergs is owned by Sony. At this point, it really depends on the ratings.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. on the other hand, is certain to be renewed. The Marvel show is owned by ABC. Automatic syndication guarantee still applies.

Now I can turn to the summer scripted mess. The Whispers is still certain to be canceled. Rookie Blue is likely to be canceled, even after the season finale looked much like a series finale. Mistresses on the other hand, is likely to be renewed. Given the state of ABC's summer dramas, only one of the three will be renewed and I'm not sure if I'm wrong.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Significant Mother' is Certain to be Canceled, Plus Final Predictions

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Significant Mother (CW)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up

None at this point

Likely Renewal

Mistresses (ABC) - renewed 9/25

Certain Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC) - canceled 9/14

The Carmichael Show (NBC) - renewed 9/14
Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, I am giving my final predictions for the summer renew/cancel predictions. Next week begins the Fall 2015 season. 

Without further ado, here is some analysis. 

Extant: The ratings were way down this season and averaged way lower than now-canceled Under the Dome. I don't see it getting another season, and I don't even think the Amazon deal would save it. 

Golan the Insatiable: The ratings were terrible, even for an animated summer series. 

Significant Mother: The CW decided to put the show on hiatus with the season finale set to be October 5. It has been steady in the ratings, but they are rather low. Enjoy the last five episodes because it's certain to be canceled.

The Whispers: Cast options expired. Ratings crashed. What more can I say? It's certainly dead.

Rookie Blue: All season, along with Mistresses, the ratings were extremely close. I should've highlighted the general collapse of ABC scripted dramas. So I took a coin flip, and looks like it comes up as "likely canceled". 

Mistresses: Same debacle as Rookie Blue. My coin flip comes up "likely renewed". But I wouldn't be surprised if it was canceled.

Mr. Robinson: Around the same scripted average as The Carmichael Show. I don't think NBC will cancel either of them. Certain renewal it is.

The Carmichael Show: Same situation as Mr. Robinson. It's also certain to be renewed.

Zoo: The show has been certain to be renewed for quite some time. Expect the show to be back for a second season. 

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Home Free' is Certain to be Renewed

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation

Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)

Cedric’s Barber Battle (CW)

Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation

America’s Next Top Model (CW)

Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)

Food Fighters (NBC)

Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)

The Island (NBC)

So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)

Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)

Home Free (FOX) 

What Would You Do? (ABC)

Big Brother (CBS)

Renewed

America’s Got Talent (NBC)

American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Divine inspiration? Home Free rose again in the ratings in the season finale to a 1.1 A18-49 rating. On the train wreck that is FOX, it is plenty good enough to get renewed. In fact, it’s now “certain to be renewed”. 

America’s Next Top Model also rose in the ratings. Could it be the move away from Fridays? Was that 0.6 a fluke? If it’s not, I’ll upgrade it. Stay tuned.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Carmichael Show' is Certain to be Renewed, of Course. Now Let's Focus on ABC Scripted Series Woes.

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Rookie Blue (ABC)
Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

The Carmichael Show (NBC)
Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

We are down to the wire. The question is, why is Mistresses still a toss up, especially since its season finale just hit a series low? The answer is, the major networks were preempted for preseason football. Speaking of Mistresses, let's just talk about the general collapse of ABC's scripted ratings for this summer. For this reason, Rookie Blue is listed as "likely canceled" instead of Mistresses. Why not both? Look at the unrounded season averages for both shows: Mistresses averages a 0.75 A18-49 rating, while Rookie Blue averages a 0.65. Clearly Mistresses has higher ratings than Rookie Blue overall. The Whispers started out okay, yet plunged in the ratings, had cast options expired, and it's now certain to be canceled. The Astronaut Wives Club was canceled due to low ratings.

To change the subject, this week The Carmichael Show pulled an Empire and rose in the ratings. I have now moved it to "certain to be renewed". Will the numbers rise again? Stay tuned.

Finally, Disqus is now available on both sites!

I finally managed to get Disqus to work on both my Re-Up Tumblr and Blogger blogs. Pretty soon, the Fall 2015 TV season will be underway. I also have some news to share of my very own. I have volunteered as a contributor to the TV Ratings Guide. My first CW Renew/Cancel post on the TV Ratings Guide will be posted in a few weeks, since the CW's season starts in October. All other Cancel/Renew predictions will be posted in mid-September. Only a couple more weeks of Summer Cancel/Renew predictions, and then the Fall 2015 season begins!

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Home Free' is Likely to be Renewed

Canceled
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 
America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)
A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
Home Free (FOX)
Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
BattleBots (ABC)
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

Renewed
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

On the train wreck that is FOX, Home Free rose to a 1.0 A18-49 rating, which is pretty good enough to get renewed. The show has been steady in the ratings, and it is now the highest FOX unscripted program of the summer season, just above So You Think You Can Dance?, which experienced a ratings decline. I think Home Free would be renewed by a slim margin, but don't expect for it to premiere in the regular season.

This week, America's Got Talent was renewed for a twelfth season by NBC. No surprise there.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Extant' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week it was announced that Under the Dome was canceled by CBS after three seasons. Reports are speculating that Extant's chances of renewal have increased.

Not so fast. Extant is still the lowest rated CBS summer drama out of the three. After Under the Dome's cancelation due to declining ratings, that only makes Extant's chance of getting renewed even more slim. You can #FanExcuseBingo all you want, but this time, I'm not even sure the Amazon deal will even work as one of the reasons for renewal, especially with the atrocious ratings that the show is getting. Extant is certain to be canceled.