NBC: 'The Player' is Certain to be Canceled

This week, NBC had a field day during premiere week. Here are the predictions:

Format for predictions: Show (Average 18-49 rating)

Certain Cancelation
The Player (1.2)

Likely Cancelation
None yet

Toss Up
The Mysteries of Laura (1.2)

Likely Renewal
Heroes Reborn (2.0)
Law & Order: SVU (1.8)

Certain Renewal
Blindspot (3.1)

Well that 1.2 rating for The Player means that it will be unlikely be renewed. If I were in headline conversion, I would start it as "likely to be canceled". But I'm not, since the show arrived DOA. It's certain to be canceled.

The Mysteries of Laura returned to the ratings that it was averaging at last spring. It's a Toss Up for now.

Heroes Reborn is likely to be renewed for now, but what will happen to the ratings? A change in ratings and predictions are likely. Same goes with Blindspot.

FOX: 'Minority Report' is Certain to be Canceled

Monday night began the start of the Fall 2015 television season. This week, new FOX shows premiered.

Certain Cancelation 
Minority Report (1.1)

Likely Cancelation
None yet

Toss Up
Scream Queens (1.7)
Gotham (1.6)

Likely Renewal
Rosewood (2.4)

Certain Renewal
Empire (6.7)

But first for the headline, Minority Report arrived DOA with a 1.1 A18-49 rating. It got major promotion, as far as I know. This low rating is scary low, and that equals either a certain reaping or immediate #bearchow, depending on whether you read the Cancel Bear or the TV Grim Reaper. This means that it will immediately start as "certain to be canceled".

Scream Queens, despite the major promotion, did not hit the rating that warranted the hype. A 1.7 A18-49 rating for a Ryan Murphy show means that it may be overhyped. We'll keep it at a Toss Up, for now.

Gotham dropped considerably from last season's premiere. Until the rest of the ratings are known, we'll keep it at a Toss Up.

Rosewood definitely surprised everyone. It has negative reviews and was expected to flop. But it didn't start DOA. Thanks to Empire. Rosewood starts as "likely to be renewed".

ABC: 'Castle' is Likely to be Canceled

This week is premiere week. Already, we have the premiere of Castle to talk about. Also, we will talk about the three remaining summer shows that have uncertain fates.

Format for predictions: Show (Average A18-19 rating)

Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club

Certain Cancelation
The Whispers (0.8)

Likely Cancelation
Castle (1.2)
Rookie Blue (0.7)

Toss Up
None

Likely Renewal
Mistresses (0.8)
The Goldbergs (not yet premiered)

Certain Renewal
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (not yet premiered)

Yet to Premiere
Fresh off the Boat
Black-ish
The Middle
Modern Family
Grey's Anatomy
How to Get Away with Murder
Scandal
Last Man Standing
Blood & Oil
Quantico
Once Upon a Time
Dr. Ken
Wicked City
Galavant (midseason)
American Crime (midseason)
Agent Carter (midseason)
Secrets & Lies (midseason)

The Family (midseason)

The Catch (midseason)

The Real O'Neals (midseason)

Uncle Buck (midseason)

Of Kings & Prophets (midseason)

Castle premiered to a 1.2 A18-49 rating last night. This premiere is way down from last fall's premiere. Immediately, this marks as likely to be canceled.

The Goldbergs is likely to be renewed, due to syndication prospects. Since the automatic syndication renewal guarantee no longer applies to outside studios, renewal is no longer certain. The Goldbergs is owned by Sony. At this point, it really depends on the ratings.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. on the other hand, is certain to be renewed. The Marvel show is owned by ABC. Automatic syndication guarantee still applies.

Now I can turn to the summer scripted mess. The Whispers is still certain to be canceled. Rookie Blue is likely to be canceled, even after the season finale looked much like a series finale. Mistresses on the other hand, is likely to be renewed. Given the state of ABC's summer dramas, only one of the three will be renewed and I'm not sure if I'm wrong.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Significant Mother' is Certain to be Canceled, Plus Final Predictions

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Significant Mother (CW)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up

None at this point

Likely Renewal

Mistresses (ABC) - renewed 9/25

Certain Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC) - canceled 9/14

The Carmichael Show (NBC) - renewed 9/14
Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, I am giving my final predictions for the summer renew/cancel predictions. Next week begins the Fall 2015 season. 

Without further ado, here is some analysis. 

Extant: The ratings were way down this season and averaged way lower than now-canceled Under the Dome. I don't see it getting another season, and I don't even think the Amazon deal would save it. 

Golan the Insatiable: The ratings were terrible, even for an animated summer series. 

Significant Mother: The CW decided to put the show on hiatus with the season finale set to be October 5. It has been steady in the ratings, but they are rather low. Enjoy the last five episodes because it's certain to be canceled.

The Whispers: Cast options expired. Ratings crashed. What more can I say? It's certainly dead.

Rookie Blue: All season, along with Mistresses, the ratings were extremely close. I should've highlighted the general collapse of ABC scripted dramas. So I took a coin flip, and looks like it comes up as "likely canceled". 

Mistresses: Same debacle as Rookie Blue. My coin flip comes up "likely renewed". But I wouldn't be surprised if it was canceled.

Mr. Robinson: Around the same scripted average as The Carmichael Show. I don't think NBC will cancel either of them. Certain renewal it is.

The Carmichael Show: Same situation as Mr. Robinson. It's also certain to be renewed.

Zoo: The show has been certain to be renewed for quite some time. Expect the show to be back for a second season. 

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Home Free' is Certain to be Renewed

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation

Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)

Cedric’s Barber Battle (CW)

Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation

America’s Next Top Model (CW)

Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)

Food Fighters (NBC)

Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)

The Island (NBC)

So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)

Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)

Home Free (FOX) 

What Would You Do? (ABC)

Big Brother (CBS)

Renewed

America’s Got Talent (NBC)

American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Divine inspiration? Home Free rose again in the ratings in the season finale to a 1.1 A18-49 rating. On the train wreck that is FOX, it is plenty good enough to get renewed. In fact, it’s now “certain to be renewed”. 

America’s Next Top Model also rose in the ratings. Could it be the move away from Fridays? Was that 0.6 a fluke? If it’s not, I’ll upgrade it. Stay tuned.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Carmichael Show' is Certain to be Renewed, of Course. Now Let's Focus on ABC Scripted Series Woes.

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Rookie Blue (ABC)
Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

The Carmichael Show (NBC)
Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

We are down to the wire. The question is, why is Mistresses still a toss up, especially since its season finale just hit a series low? The answer is, the major networks were preempted for preseason football. Speaking of Mistresses, let's just talk about the general collapse of ABC's scripted ratings for this summer. For this reason, Rookie Blue is listed as "likely canceled" instead of Mistresses. Why not both? Look at the unrounded season averages for both shows: Mistresses averages a 0.75 A18-49 rating, while Rookie Blue averages a 0.65. Clearly Mistresses has higher ratings than Rookie Blue overall. The Whispers started out okay, yet plunged in the ratings, had cast options expired, and it's now certain to be canceled. The Astronaut Wives Club was canceled due to low ratings.

To change the subject, this week The Carmichael Show pulled an Empire and rose in the ratings. I have now moved it to "certain to be renewed". Will the numbers rise again? Stay tuned.

Finally, Disqus is now available on both sites!

I finally managed to get Disqus to work on both my Re-Up Tumblr and Blogger blogs. Pretty soon, the Fall 2015 TV season will be underway. I also have some news to share of my very own. I have volunteered as a contributor to the TV Ratings Guide. My first CW Renew/Cancel post on the TV Ratings Guide will be posted in a few weeks, since the CW's season starts in October. All other Cancel/Renew predictions will be posted in mid-September. Only a couple more weeks of Summer Cancel/Renew predictions, and then the Fall 2015 season begins!

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Home Free' is Likely to be Renewed

Canceled
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 
America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)
A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
Home Free (FOX)
Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
BattleBots (ABC)
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

Renewed
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

On the train wreck that is FOX, Home Free rose to a 1.0 A18-49 rating, which is pretty good enough to get renewed. The show has been steady in the ratings, and it is now the highest FOX unscripted program of the summer season, just above So You Think You Can Dance?, which experienced a ratings decline. I think Home Free would be renewed by a slim margin, but don't expect for it to premiere in the regular season.

This week, America's Got Talent was renewed for a twelfth season by NBC. No surprise there.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Extant' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week it was announced that Under the Dome was canceled by CBS after three seasons. Reports are speculating that Extant's chances of renewal have increased.

Not so fast. Extant is still the lowest rated CBS summer drama out of the three. After Under the Dome's cancelation due to declining ratings, that only makes Extant's chance of getting renewed even more slim. You can #FanExcuseBingo all you want, but this time, I'm not even sure the Amazon deal will even work as one of the reasons for renewal, especially with the atrocious ratings that the show is getting. Extant is certain to be canceled.

Summer Reality Predictions: ‘Bachelor in Paradise’ is Certain to be Renewed, ‘America’s Next Top Model’ is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 
America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)
A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Home Free (FOX)
Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
BattleBots (ABC)
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
America's Got Talent (NBC)

Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

I decided that it was well overdue for a Renew/Cancel unscripted post. 

This week I decided to upgrade Bachelor in Paradise to “certain to be renewed” after its steady ratings, especially for its recent Monday ratings. Best be assured that it will be renewed for next summer. 

America’s Next Top Model, is not doing too badly by CW reality standards. But, rumor has it that Tyra Banks announced a few weeks ago that Cycle 22 might be its last. Hence the “likely canceled” prediction remains, since it depends on whether or not the fans want to continue with watching the show, even though there has been a decline in ratings. 

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Carmichael Show' Starts Out as a TossUp for Cancelation or Renewal

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

The Carmichael Show premiered this week slightly worse than Mr. Robinson. Whether or not that's bad news for the show or whether it would do even poorly for next week, it was more positively reviewed than Mr. Robinson. For now, the show is a Toss Up.

I've moved Mistresses up to a Toss Up due to 2 straight weeks at 0.8 ratings. Last year, the show was renewed with 0.9 A18-49 ratings. Right now, I'm giving it the edge over Rookie Blue, which is now certain to be canceled after hitting a new series low of a 0.5 A18-49 rating. 

Extant finally returned to a 0.8 A18-49 rating this week and I've moved it to likely to be canceled. For now I'll decide that if the show gets twice as many 0.8s as it does 0.7s, I'll move it to a Toss Up. If it drops even lower, it's back to certain cancelation territory. If it rises even higher, I may consider putting it at likely renewal. Stay tuned. 

Update: Under the Dome was canceled by CBS after 3 seasons. I was not particularly surprised, I predicted it as "likely canceled" due to a decline in ratings. So far, I have gone 8-1 for the summer, missing only Aquarius, when it was renewed while I predicted it as a "certain cancelation". 

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Mr. Robinson' is Likely to be Renewed, Cancelation #7 Happens

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Toss Up

None at this point

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Mr. Robinson's steady ratings on NBC brings me to change my prediction for the show to "likely to be renewed". 

The Astronaut Wives Club was canceled this past week by ABC. No surprise due to low ratings. 

Summer Reality Predictions: What's New? Another Week, Another Downgrade...'Save My Life: Boston Trauma' is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Home Free (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)

So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

America's Got Talent (NBC)

Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Last week, I downgraded Boston EMS to a Likely Cancelation, and this week I'm downgrading Save My Life: Boston Trauma. This week, the drop in ratings to a 0.6 in the A18-49 demo prompted me to immediate action. 

I'm also starting my prediction for America's Next Top Model at "likely to be canceled" but it's not just because it suffered from decline in ratings. Tyra Banks announced that Cycle 22 may be its last. The CW has not confirmed on whether this will be the final cycle. 

Last Comic Standing is a toss up between cancelation and renewal. So far, nothing is definite.

Hollywood Game Night will be upgraded to a Likely Renewal. I think that it can be renewed by a slim margin since the ratings have since rose slightly. 

Working on a Redesign

So I'm trying to enable Disqus into my blog so I can interact with the TV world on renewals and cancelations. So far, I have yet to see Disqus integration. Hopefully I will resume my normal post activity when it all gets resolved.

Summer Scripted Predictions: Might ABC Cancel All of Their Scripted Summer Dramas?

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Toss Up

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Likely Renewal

None at this point

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Last night preemptions inflated the ratings of Beauty & the Beast, Under the Dome, and other shows. In the finals, Under the Dome matched its series low at a 0.8 A18-49 rating which caused me to downgrade its prediction to "likely to be canceled".

Somehow I forgot to put Mr. Robinson on the list of shows currently on the air. It premiered to a 1.2 A18-49 rating and it has held steady at a 1.0. Because it only airs for three weeks before The Carmichael Show premieres, each show has six episodes. Mr. Robinson is a toss up between cancelation and renewal.

I was a little hesitant on downgrading the prediction for The Astronaut Wives Club but at a second straight week at a series low causes me to take it down two notches to "certain to be canceled". And that's not all. 

Right now it looks like all of ABC's scripted shows are heading towards cancelation. For Rookie Blue, this depends on whether Global in Canada will renew the series. Hence its at "likely to be canceled" because ABC could pull a cancelation like Motive (that is, CTV renewed Motive, but it was canceled by ABC). Mistresses is also at "likely to be canceled", due to ratings decline, and it could be due to Alyssa Milano's departure, and also a time slot change. The ratings are beyond abominable. The Likely Cancelation prediction is looking pretty generous at this point. Stay tuned.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Zoo' is Certain to be Renewed, 'Significant Mother' is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Likely Renewal

None at this point

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Zoo's steady ratings have me convinced that there will be a change in prediction. Zoo is certain to be renewed at the end of the summer season. Looking at the predictions, Under the Dome's significant ratings drop has caused me to downgrade it to a Toss Up. 

After the ratings for Significant Mother slipped to a 0.2 A18-49 rating in the final national numbers, the show is downgraded to "likely to be canceled" this week. Also this past week Dates aired the final episode which is marketed as a series finale. As a result, the show has been put into the "canceled" category. This marks 6 shows that I have correctly predicted for cancelation, missing the Aquarius renewal.

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Boston EMS' Likely Canceled

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Home Free (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

America's Got Talent (NBC)


Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Boston EMS dropped to a 0.6 A18-49 rating this week. It will immediately be downgraded to a likely cancelation.

Save My Life: Boston Trauma's toss up prediction is looking rather generous at this point. Expect a prediction change next week.

Update: The CW has renewed Whose Line is it Anyway? for a 12th season and Penn & Teller: Fool Us for a third season. No surprise, their renewals were correctly predicted. So far, I've had a miss free summer in the unscripted department.

Update #2: NBC has renewed American Ninja Warrior for a fifth season. This is also not a surprise, as it was predicted as "certain to be renewed" for weeks.

Summer Reality Predictions: Cancelation #1 Finally Happens, While 'Running Wild with Bear Gryllis' is Likely to be Renewed

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Boston EMS (ABC)

Bullseye (FOX)

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Home Free (FOX)
The Island (NBC)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Finally the first cancelation of the summer! In an unsurprising move, FOX canceled Knock Knock Live after two episodes due to extremely low ratings. It was DOA from the get go. 

On NBC, Running Wild with Bear Gryllis has been steady in the ratings. Rating in the 1.2-1.3 range especially on a low rated network is enough to get it renewed, hence the "likely to be renewed" prediction. And the toss up prediction is looking ever more generous for Hollywood Game Night. I'll wait one or two more weeks.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Whispers' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Likely Renewal

Under the Dome (CBS)

Zoo (CBS)

Certain Renewal

None, at this point

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, Significant Mother premiered to a 0.3 A18-49 rating. By CW comedy standards, it's not doing too poorly but not great either. I'll keep it at Toss Up for now.

Safe to say that after the week long hiatus of The Whispers, the ratings slipped to a 0.6 A18-49 rating. Safe to say that The Whispers will not come back, as it will be certain to be canceled at the end of the summer season.

After Rookie Blue went back to a 0.7 A18-49 rating it returns to the Likely Cancelation spot. Will it be a cancelation like Motive's? Stay tuned.

Summer Reality Predictions: 'BattleBots' Now a Certain Renewal, 'Home Free', 'Boston EMS', and 'Save My Life: Boston Trauma' are Toss Ups, and 'Boom!' is a Certain Cancelation

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Likely Cancelation
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Boston EMS (ABC)

Bullseye (FOX)

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Home Free (FOX)
The Island (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (NBC)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
None, at this point

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

For the past week, the mass premieres of Home Free, Boston EMS, and Save My Life: Boston Trauma came by with warped speed. The ratings for all three shows are not too terrible especially since Boston EMS is on Saturday. More than likely I will hold off on making any renewal or cancelation predictions until I see one or two more weeks of their ratings. For this they'll start as Toss Ups to be canceled or renewed. 

BattleBots' finale held steady in the ratings. At this point there is no chance that the show will be canceled, so I have upgraded it to a Certain Renewal.

Boom! is not so lucky. With a decline to a 0.6 A18-49 rating, I'm more inclined to believe that cancelation is inevitable. The show is now a Certain Cancelation. 

CW shows Penn & Teller: Fool Us and Whose Line is it Anyway? have been steady in the ratings with 0.4 and 0.5 A18-49 ratings respectively. That's great for summer standards on the network. But I'm holding on for another week, hence the Likely Renewal predictions.

UPDATE: After Penn & Teller: Fool Us rose to a final 0.6 A18-49 rating (and a preliminary 0.7), and a repeat of Whose Line scored a 0.4, I have upgraded them to "certain to be renewed". Obviously with those ratings, expect them to stick around for anther season.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Welcome to Sweden' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC) - canceled 7/28

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Toss Up

Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Likely Renewal

Under the Dome (CBS)

Zoo (CBS)

Certain Renewal

None, at this point

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Welcome to Sweden dropped in the ratings to a new series low of a 0.2 A18-49 rating. With absolute confidence, the show will immediately be downgraded to "certain to be canceled". Adding on to the certainty is the fact that Sweden has not renewed the series yet, and it is unlikely to do so.

In the woeful ratings territory that is CBS, Under the Dome and Zoo, pulling in numbers that indicate cancelation are both likely to be renewed by a slim margin. Still at least one scripted show will be canceled, and that will most likely be certain to be canceled Extant, not the other two.

Rookie Blue will be upgraded to a Toss Up this week. Since it is pulling in numbers similar to The Whispers and it is a veteran series, it could survive at lower relative ratings. But the ratings are still fractional. This week it has risen to a 0.8 A18-49 rating, and I'm hoping that it's not a fluke. I could see it go either way.

UPDATE: To no one's surprise, NBC canceled Welcome to Sweden after four low rated episodes. 

Summer Reality Predictions: Has 'Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?' Been Canceled? 'Knock Knock Live' Will Be

Reality Series

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Likely Cancelation
Boom! (FOX)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
The Island (NBC)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Certain Renewal
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

On the train wreck that is FOX, Knock Knock Live premiered DOA, with a 0.5 A18-49 rating. The network thought that airing the So You Think You Can Dance? clip show this week in hopes that it will boost the ratings would work. But it did not, and that's why the show is a Certain Cancelation.

In order to accommodate the new show, FOX decided not to air Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? this week. Some reports are stating that the show was pulled off the schedule. Regardless, it's enough for my prediction to downgrade to "certain to be canceled" for the struggling game show.

On a positive note, BattleBots has been steady in the ratings, which is enough for me to upgrade it to a Likely Renewal this week. Also, the observant will note that Celebrity Family Feud was upgraded to "certain to be renewed". With the ratings that it has been getting, it's clearly not going anywhere. 

To no one's surprise, MasterChef was renewed for a seventh season.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Welcome to Sweden' and 'The Whispers' are Likely to Be Canceled, For Now

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Toss Up

Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Zoo (CBS)

Likely Renewal

None, at this point

Certain Renewal

None, at this point

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week I did not expect to be downgrading some television shows. I expected to upgrade at least one show. However I'm holding on for one more week.

Welcome to Sweden premiered abominably low with a 0.3 A18-49 rating. I have to admit that I will give it the benefit of the doubt, since it is an international coproduction. For this point, rather than starting it in the certain cancelation territory, Welcome to Sweden will start at "likely to be canceled".

What has been going on with The Whispers? We've been hearing that cast options have been expired for the show. The show is not doing badly by summer standards, but with reports about unhappy cast members, we'll put it as "likely canceled" for now.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Extant' is Certain to Be Canceled, while 'Wayward Pines' is Effectively Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Certain Cancelation 

Dates (CW)
Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up

Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Under the Dome (CBS)

The Whispers (ABC)

Zoo (CBS)

Likely Renewal

None, at this point

Certain Renewal

None, at this point

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, FOX has canceled Wayward Pines after one season. Next week's episode showed that it was a series finale instead of a season finale. Therefore, we confirm that the show is, and will forever be, a miniseries, thus making it de-facto canceled.

Extant fell to a series low 0.6 A18-19 rating this week, so woeful that CBS is switching its timeslot to 9:00, instead of 10:00. Safe to say that Extant is 'certain to be canceled' by the end of the summer season.

Summer Reality Predictions - 'Extreme Weight Loss' is Certain to Be Canceled

Reality Series

Certain Cancelation
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)

Likely Cancelation
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
BattleBots (ABC)
Bullseye (FOX)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Certain Renewal
The Bachelorette (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
MasterChef (FOX)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

I have got to admit, I did some spring cleaning on my page.

Last week, Extreme Weight Loss has declined to a series low 0.6 A18-49 rating. The continuing decline for Extreme Weight Loss, especially for the Love Can't Weight episodes, show that the show's chances of renewal are slim at best. Therefore, the show will be downgraded to a Certain Cancelation, joining the CW's woefully rated Cedric's Barber Battle.

The declines in both Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? and Boom! ratings tells me that clearly, game shows are becoming a thing of the past. The shows have been downgraded to likely canceled.

Hollywood Game Night premiered to steady ratings, but it's too early to make a prediction for renewal. I'll predict it at a Toss Up for now.

Celebrity Family Feud has been steadily rising in the ratings. This week, it's been predicted as likely to be renewed, especially since it is the highest rated show on ABC for this week. BattleBots remains a Toss Up, however especially since it has pulled consistent ratings, but not great enough for renewal.

Bachelor in Paradise returns August 2 on ABC.