Summer Reality Predictions: ‘Bachelor in Paradise’ is Certain to be Renewed, ‘America’s Next Top Model’ is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled
Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)
Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 
America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)
A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up
Bullseye (FOX)
Home Free (FOX)
Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)
Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
BattleBots (ABC)
The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)
America's Got Talent (NBC)

Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
I Can Do That (NBC)
MasterChef (FOX)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)
Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

I decided that it was well overdue for a Renew/Cancel unscripted post. 

This week I decided to upgrade Bachelor in Paradise to “certain to be renewed” after its steady ratings, especially for its recent Monday ratings. Best be assured that it will be renewed for next summer. 

America’s Next Top Model, is not doing too badly by CW reality standards. But, rumor has it that Tyra Banks announced a few weeks ago that Cycle 22 might be its last. Hence the “likely canceled” prediction remains, since it depends on whether or not the fans want to continue with watching the show, even though there has been a decline in ratings. 

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Carmichael Show' Starts Out as a TossUp for Cancelation or Renewal

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

Mistresses (ABC)

The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

The Carmichael Show premiered this week slightly worse than Mr. Robinson. Whether or not that's bad news for the show or whether it would do even poorly for next week, it was more positively reviewed than Mr. Robinson. For now, the show is a Toss Up.

I've moved Mistresses up to a Toss Up due to 2 straight weeks at 0.8 ratings. Last year, the show was renewed with 0.9 A18-49 ratings. Right now, I'm giving it the edge over Rookie Blue, which is now certain to be canceled after hitting a new series low of a 0.5 A18-49 rating. 

Extant finally returned to a 0.8 A18-49 rating this week and I've moved it to likely to be canceled. For now I'll decide that if the show gets twice as many 0.8s as it does 0.7s, I'll move it to a Toss Up. If it drops even lower, it's back to certain cancelation territory. If it rises even higher, I may consider putting it at likely renewal. Stay tuned. 

Update: Under the Dome was canceled by CBS after 3 seasons. I was not particularly surprised, I predicted it as "likely canceled" due to a decline in ratings. So far, I have gone 8-1 for the summer, missing only Aquarius, when it was renewed while I predicted it as a "certain cancelation". 

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Mr. Robinson' is Likely to be Renewed, Cancelation #7 Happens

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)

Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Toss Up

None at this point

Likely Renewal

Mr. Robinson

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Mr. Robinson's steady ratings on NBC brings me to change my prediction for the show to "likely to be renewed". 

The Astronaut Wives Club was canceled this past week by ABC. No surprise due to low ratings. 

Summer Reality Predictions: What's New? Another Week, Another Downgrade...'Save My Life: Boston Trauma' is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

America's Next Top Model (CW)
Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)
Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Home Free (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)

So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)
Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

America's Got Talent (NBC)

Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Last week, I downgraded Boston EMS to a Likely Cancelation, and this week I'm downgrading Save My Life: Boston Trauma. This week, the drop in ratings to a 0.6 in the A18-49 demo prompted me to immediate action. 

I'm also starting my prediction for America's Next Top Model at "likely to be canceled" but it's not just because it suffered from decline in ratings. Tyra Banks announced that Cycle 22 may be its last. The CW has not confirmed on whether this will be the final cycle. 

Last Comic Standing is a toss up between cancelation and renewal. So far, nothing is definite.

Hollywood Game Night will be upgraded to a Likely Renewal. I think that it can be renewed by a slim margin since the ratings have since rose slightly. 

Working on a Redesign

So I'm trying to enable Disqus into my blog so I can interact with the TV world on renewals and cancelations. So far, I have yet to see Disqus integration. Hopefully I will resume my normal post activity when it all gets resolved.

Summer Scripted Predictions: Might ABC Cancel All of Their Scripted Summer Dramas?

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Toss Up

Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Likely Renewal

None at this point

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Last night preemptions inflated the ratings of Beauty & the Beast, Under the Dome, and other shows. In the finals, Under the Dome matched its series low at a 0.8 A18-49 rating which caused me to downgrade its prediction to "likely to be canceled".

Somehow I forgot to put Mr. Robinson on the list of shows currently on the air. It premiered to a 1.2 A18-49 rating and it has held steady at a 1.0. Because it only airs for three weeks before The Carmichael Show premieres, each show has six episodes. Mr. Robinson is a toss up between cancelation and renewal.

I was a little hesitant on downgrading the prediction for The Astronaut Wives Club but at a second straight week at a series low causes me to take it down two notches to "certain to be canceled". And that's not all. 

Right now it looks like all of ABC's scripted shows are heading towards cancelation. For Rookie Blue, this depends on whether Global in Canada will renew the series. Hence its at "likely to be canceled" because ABC could pull a cancelation like Motive (that is, CTV renewed Motive, but it was canceled by ABC). Mistresses is also at "likely to be canceled", due to ratings decline, and it could be due to Alyssa Milano's departure, and also a time slot change. The ratings are beyond abominable. The Likely Cancelation prediction is looking pretty generous at this point. Stay tuned.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'Zoo' is Certain to be Renewed, 'Significant Mother' is Likely to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Dates (CW)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Under the Dome (CBS)

Likely Renewal

None at this point

Certain Renewal

Zoo (CBS)

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

Zoo's steady ratings have me convinced that there will be a change in prediction. Zoo is certain to be renewed at the end of the summer season. Looking at the predictions, Under the Dome's significant ratings drop has caused me to downgrade it to a Toss Up. 

After the ratings for Significant Mother slipped to a 0.2 A18-49 rating in the final national numbers, the show is downgraded to "likely to be canceled" this week. Also this past week Dates aired the final episode which is marketed as a series finale. As a result, the show has been put into the "canceled" category. This marks 6 shows that I have correctly predicted for cancelation, missing the Aquarius renewal.

Summer Reality Predictions: 'Boston EMS' Likely Canceled

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Boston EMS (ABC)

The Briefcase (CBS)

Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

A Wicked Offer (CW)

Toss Up

Bullseye (FOX)

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Home Free (FOX)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)
The Island (NBC)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

America's Got Talent (NBC)


Renewed
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)

Boston EMS dropped to a 0.6 A18-49 rating this week. It will immediately be downgraded to a likely cancelation.

Save My Life: Boston Trauma's toss up prediction is looking rather generous at this point. Expect a prediction change next week.

Update: The CW has renewed Whose Line is it Anyway? for a 12th season and Penn & Teller: Fool Us for a third season. No surprise, their renewals were correctly predicted. So far, I've had a miss free summer in the unscripted department.

Update #2: NBC has renewed American Ninja Warrior for a fifth season. This is also not a surprise, as it was predicted as "certain to be renewed" for weeks.

Summer Reality Predictions: Cancelation #1 Finally Happens, While 'Running Wild with Bear Gryllis' is Likely to be Renewed

Canceled

Knock Knock Live (FOX)

Certain Cancelation
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader? (FOX)

Boom! (FOX)
Cedric's Barber Battle (CW)
Extreme Weight Loss (ABC)

Likely Cancelation
The Briefcase (CBS)
Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC)
Food Fighters (NBC)
Masters of Illusion (CW)

Toss Up
Boston EMS (ABC)

Bullseye (FOX)

Hollywood Game Night (NBC)

Home Free (FOX)
The Island (NBC)

Last Comic Standing (NBC)

Save My Life: Boston Trauma (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance? (FOX)

Likely Renewal
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC)

Running Wild with Bear Gryllis (NBC)

Certain Renewal
BattleBots (ABC)

The Bachelorette (ABC)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)
What Would You Do? (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS)

Penn & Teller: Fool Us (CW)

Whose Line is it Anyway? (CW)
America's Got Talent (NBC)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC)

Renewed
I Can Do That (NBC)

MasterChef (FOX)

Finally the first cancelation of the summer! In an unsurprising move, FOX canceled Knock Knock Live after two episodes due to extremely low ratings. It was DOA from the get go. 

On NBC, Running Wild with Bear Gryllis has been steady in the ratings. Rating in the 1.2-1.3 range especially on a low rated network is enough to get it renewed, hence the "likely to be renewed" prediction. And the toss up prediction is looking ever more generous for Hollywood Game Night. I'll wait one or two more weeks.

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Whispers' is Certain to be Canceled

Canceled 

American Odyssey (NBC)

A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)

Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)

Welcome to Sweden (NBC)

Certain Cancelation 
Dates (CW)

Extant (CBS)

Golan the Insatiable (FOX)

The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 

Mistresses (ABC)

Rookie Blue (ABC)

Toss Up

The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)

Significant Mother (CW)

Likely Renewal

Under the Dome (CBS)

Zoo (CBS)

Certain Renewal

None, at this point

Renewed

Aquarius (NBC)

Beauty & the Beast (CW)

This week, Significant Mother premiered to a 0.3 A18-49 rating. By CW comedy standards, it's not doing too poorly but not great either. I'll keep it at Toss Up for now.

Safe to say that after the week long hiatus of The Whispers, the ratings slipped to a 0.6 A18-49 rating. Safe to say that The Whispers will not come back, as it will be certain to be canceled at the end of the summer season.

After Rookie Blue went back to a 0.7 A18-49 rating it returns to the Likely Cancelation spot. Will it be a cancelation like Motive's? Stay tuned.