Saturday, August 29, 2015

Summer Scripted Predictions: 'The Carmichael Show' Starts Out as a TossUp for Cancelation or Renewal

Canceled 
American Odyssey (NBC)
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC)
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC)
Dates (CW)
Hannibal (NBC)
Wayward Pines (FOX)
Welcome to Sweden (NBC)
Under the Dome (CBS)

Certain Cancelation 
Golan the Insatiable (FOX)
Rookie Blue (ABC)
The Whispers (ABC)

Likely Cancelation 
Extant (CBS)
Significant Mother (CW)

Toss Up
Mistresses (ABC)
The Carmichael Show (NBC)

Likely Renewal
Mr. Robinson (NBC)

Certain Renewal
Zoo (CBS)

Renewed
Aquarius (NBC)
Beauty & the Beast (CW)

The Carmichael Show premiered this week slightly worse than Mr. Robinson. Whether or not that's bad news for the show or whether it would do even poorly for next week, it was more positively reviewed than Mr. Robinson. For now, the show is a Toss Up.

I've moved Mistresses up to a Toss Up due to 2 straight weeks at 0.8 ratings. Last year, the show was renewed with 0.9 A18-49 ratings. Right now, I'm giving it the edge over Rookie Blue, which is now certain to be canceled after hitting a new series low of a 0.5 A18-49 rating. 

Extant finally returned to a 0.8 A18-49 rating this week and I've moved it to likely to be canceled. For now I'll decide that if the show gets twice as many 0.8s as it does 0.7s, I'll move it to a Toss Up. If it drops even lower, it's back to certain cancelation territory. If it rises even higher, I may consider putting it at likely renewal. Stay tuned. 

Update: Under the Dome was canceled by CBS after 3 seasons. I was not particularly surprised, I predicted it as "likely canceled" due to a decline in ratings. So far, I have gone 8-1 for the summer, missing only Aquarius, when it was renewed while I predicted it as a "certain cancelation". 

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