ABC: 'Castle' is Likely to be Canceled

This week is premiere week. Already, we have the premiere of Castle to talk about. Also, we will talk about the three remaining summer shows that have uncertain fates.

Format for predictions: Show (Average A18-19 rating)

Canceled
The Astronaut Wives Club

Certain Cancelation
The Whispers (0.8)

Likely Cancelation
Castle (1.2)
Rookie Blue (0.7)

Toss Up
None

Likely Renewal
Mistresses (0.8)
The Goldbergs (not yet premiered)

Certain Renewal
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (not yet premiered)

Yet to Premiere
Fresh off the Boat
Black-ish
The Middle
Modern Family
Grey's Anatomy
How to Get Away with Murder
Scandal
Last Man Standing
Blood & Oil
Quantico
Once Upon a Time
Dr. Ken
Wicked City
Galavant (midseason)
American Crime (midseason)
Agent Carter (midseason)
Secrets & Lies (midseason)

The Family (midseason)

The Catch (midseason)

The Real O'Neals (midseason)

Uncle Buck (midseason)

Of Kings & Prophets (midseason)

Castle premiered to a 1.2 A18-49 rating last night. This premiere is way down from last fall's premiere. Immediately, this marks as likely to be canceled.

The Goldbergs is likely to be renewed, due to syndication prospects. Since the automatic syndication renewal guarantee no longer applies to outside studios, renewal is no longer certain. The Goldbergs is owned by Sony. At this point, it really depends on the ratings.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. on the other hand, is certain to be renewed. The Marvel show is owned by ABC. Automatic syndication guarantee still applies.

Now I can turn to the summer scripted mess. The Whispers is still certain to be canceled. Rookie Blue is likely to be canceled, even after the season finale looked much like a series finale. Mistresses on the other hand, is likely to be renewed. Given the state of ABC's summer dramas, only one of the three will be renewed and I'm not sure if I'm wrong.